Discover our other sites:

You might be looking for...

Smoke from a forest fire in the Pantanal, Brazil, in June 2024. The wildfire season in South America was the worst ever recorded, according to NRK.

(Photo: Ueslei Marcelino / Reuters / NTB)

Why next year is unlikely to be as warm as 2024

A weather phenomenon is about to occur. It works in the opposite direction of global warming.

Elise Kjørstad journalist

Published 30 December 2024 - 00:01

The year we are in, 2024, will be the warmest year ever recorded. The previous year, 2023, set the same record.

This year, for the first time, the average temperature appears to be 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times, reports the World Meteorological Organization and Copernicus, the EU's climate monitoring service.

Will it continue to get warmer in the coming years?

Hurricane Beryl swept through Central America and the western parts of North America in early July. 'There have never been tropical hurricanes in category five measured this early in the season,' says Kjetil Schanke Aas. — Hurricane Beryl swept through Central America and the western parts of North America in early July. "There have never been tropical hurricanes in category five measured this early in the season," says Kjetil Schanke Aas.

Has the Paris Agreement been broken?

The Paris Agreement states that we should keep global warming well below 2 degrees and aim for 1.5 degrees, says Kjetil Schanke Aas, climate researcher at CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

"This is the first year we cross the threshold. It's a grim milestone," he says.

However, this does not mean the goal of the Paris Agreement has been breached yet, he points out. The 1.5-degree threshold is not about individual years but rather the average over a longer period.

El Niño has driven temperatures up

The exceptional warmth in 2024 is due to steady increases in global warming combined with the El Niño phenomenon, says Kjetil Schanke Aas.

El Niño is a natural climate fluctuation with unusually high surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific near the equator. It affects weather patterns in many places on Earth and leads to higher average temperatures.

El Niño began in 2023 and ended this spring, but temperatures have remained high.

It is common for El Niño years to be followed by record years, such as 2024, according to CICERO (link in Norwegian).

"We expected a warm year. But I think this was at the upper end of what many had envisioned," says Aas.

But next year, something will happen.

Climate researcher Kjetil Schanke Aas at CICERO.

A new weather phenomenon emerges

"It takes time for temperatures to adjust. However, we're now seeing that ocean temperatures are starting to decrease somewhat," says Aas.

Most viewed

Aas notes that there are indications of a possible La Niña next year.

La Niña is the opposite of El Niño and typically has a cooling effect. It refers to unusually low temperatures in the eastern Pacific near the equator.

One way to measure this is when temperatures are 0.5 degrees below normal in a specific area of the tropical eastern Pacific.

"Currently, conditions are neutral, but we're heading towards a La Niña," says Aas.

According to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 55 per cent chance of La Niña occurring within the next three months. If it happens, it is expected to be weak and short-lived, according to WMO.

These are natural fluctuations, says Aas.

"From a climate perspective, the most important thing is to monitor the underlying warming trend. That, at least, is not decreasing. If anything, it appears to be accelerating," he says.

Still, according to Aas, next year is unlikely to be another record-breaking year.

How long can we expect to avoid new heat records?

Mud is removed from the streets after the flood disaster in Valencia, Spain, at the end of October, where over 200 people lost their lives.

No records expected in the coming years

Hans Olav Hygen is the head of climate services at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. He also believes global temperatures will be slightly lower in the next few years.

"2024 and 2023 were two extremely warm years. I don't expect the coming years to be as warm, but they won't be far off," says Hygen.

"When we look back, we see that during El Niño events like in 2023 and 2024, the global temperatures are pushed significantly upwards," he says.

The temperature will remain on a new plateau for a few years until it rises again with the next El Niño.

"I don't expect records in the next few years. However, I believe temperatures will remain close to the 2023 and 2024 levels, with a new record likely in five to seven years," he says.

Globally, it is slightly cooler now in November and December compared to the same time last year, according to Hygen.

———

Translated by Alette Bjordal Gjellesvik

Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no