"If birth rates decline, the composition of the population will change. We will have an older population and, in the long run, fewer people of working age," says Ane Margrete Tømmerås, a PhD candidate in population and public economics at Statistics Norway.
Statistics Norway's population projections from 2024 expect the number of births to remain relatively stable for many years to come.
"The same applies to the number of people of working age. What's changing is the significant increase in the number of elderly people, which is reshaping the population pyramid," says Tømmerås.
Fewer hands in the workforce
Rannveig Kaldager Hart is a researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and the University of Oslo.
She points out that fewer newborns today will bring significant changes to everything from childcare services to the labour market in the future.
"In the short term, it leads to lower public spending," says Hart.
When the smaller birth cohorts become adults, Hart says that we will have fewer hands in the workforce and therefore lower tax revenues for the state.
Declining birth rates and an ageing population could result in a shrinking workforce, explains Rannveig Kaldanger Hart.(Photo: Shutterstock / NTB)
"Societies experiencing falling birth rates and an increasing elderly population will eventually need to shift resources and labour from caring for the young to caring for the elderly. This means that daycare centres and schools may be repurposed into nursing homes and care facilities," she says.
Fewer children will lower public spending in the short term, says Rannveig Kaldanger Hart.(Photo: University of Oslo)
Such institutional changes could make society less child-friendly.
"This kind of development could, in turn, make it more inconvenient to have kids," says Hart.
Could have positive effects on the environment
Øystein Kravdal is a researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health's Centre for Fertility and Health.
Annonse
He has recently reviewed studies on this demographic shift and compiled a research summary. Although it is still under consideration for publication in a scientific journal, he shares some of his findings.
The research he examined suggests that an ageing population could slow economic growth and make it harder to maintain the quality of healthcare services.
"At the same time, a smaller and older population may lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental burdens," says Kravdal.
A real concern, but not due to voluntarily childlessness
So why are Norwegian women having so few children?
Melissa Geelmuyden Andersen, a PhD candidate at the University of Bergen's Department of Sociology, acknowledges that Norway's declining fertility rate is a concern. However, she does not believe it is primarily due to women choosing to remain childless.
"They make up a very small part of the overall picture. The main reasons some people decide not to have kids stem from a mix of prioritising personal fulfilment and constraints related to their life circumstances," says Andersen.
Factors like a lack of a suitable partner and job demands require a high degree of flexibility, which can be difficult to balance with children, she adds.
"Are more women choosing not to have children today?"
"It may seem that way, but in reality, we don't know if there are more now than in the past. However, the topic is more openly discussed today, and there's greater acceptance for choosing a child-free life," she says.
Norms have changed
Eirin Pedersen, a senior researcher at OsloMet's Centre for Welfare and Labour Research, explains that changing norms around parenting may help explain why people are having fewer children.
"There has been a shift since the 1970s. Parents now spend more time with their children, and there's an expectation of a closer relationship," she says.
Childhood has become more structured, and parenting requires greater involvement from parents.
Parents are more present in their children's lives today, says senior researcher Eirin Pedersen.(Photo: Shutterstock / NTB)
"Many women might want more children but choose not to because they realise they don't have the resources for it. Work, finances, and time management play a significant role," says Pedersen.
She also highlights that mothers are having children later in life.
"Many women consider the best timing for having children. Often, they want to complete their education first and work for a few years before feeling ready. On top of that, they need to find a partner to have children with, which isn't always easy," she says.
Eirin Pedersen says that many women wish to have more children but often lack the time or resources.(Photo: Eivind Røhne)
"Always thinking about growth is wrong"
Should we be looking for solutions to low population growth?
In several countries, governments have tried to encourage people to have more children by offering financial benefits to families.
Pedersen believes similar measures in Norway could have some effect, but she emphasises that the most important thing is to create a society where more people feel secure about having children – without external pressure.
"The idea of always focusing on growth is misguided. People should have children when it suits them. Many are born into situations with little support or assistance," she says.
Pedersen believes that the most crucial role of the state is to ensure better welfare benefits and stronger support for those in vulnerable situations.
"In the future, increasing support for fertility treatments and medical assistance will become even more relevant," she says.
Pedersen warns against putting too much pressure on women to have children.
"We need to rethink the labour market, pension systems, and how we organise society. But above all, people should be able to have the children they truly want," she says.
