The probability of dying before the age of 70 has halved in several countries
"With all the negativity in the world today, it's encouraging that some things are still improving," says the Norwegian leader of a new global study.
Published
Since 1970, the probability of dying before turning 70 has fallen from 56 per cent to 31 per cent.
Researchers included people from all countries in the world in this calculation.
They call this premature death.
"Death is inevitable. But increasingly more people in the world are now living long lives," Ole F. Norheim tells sciencenorway.no.
Norheim is a professor at the University of Bergen and has led a new study published in The Lancet. He has collaborated with five other international experts in global health.
Possible to halve deaths
"Our study also shows that it's possible to halve the number of premature deaths – worldwide – by the middle of this century, around the year 2050," says Norheim.
"But this will require targeted global health measures. In many countries, more money must be invested in people's health," he says.
Even in developing countries, non-communicable diseases have now become the major threat to people's health.
An increasing number of deaths worldwide are linked to diabetes, heart disease, and high blood pressure.
Ethiopia and Bangladesh have halved mortality
The study, funded by the Norwegian government along with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has focused particularly on the population in the world's 30 most populous countries.
A total of seven of these countries – including Ethiopia in Africa and Bangladesh in Asia – have already managed to halve their premature mortality rates since the 1970s.
"These countries have shown us that significant and rapid health improvements are possible," says Norheim.
The countries that have been most successful in reducing child mortality and adult deaths before the age of 70 have often focused on very specific health measures.
Three examples:
- Child vaccination programmes
- Reduction of smoking
- Improved access to healthcare, especially for people in rural areas
Diabetes and cardiovascular diseases are now the leading causes of death
"Chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancer are now the leading causes of death globally," says Norheim.
Effective health measures will not only allow more people to celebrate their 70th birthday but also help more people live healthy and fulfilling lives.
Achieving this involves learning from success stories like Ethiopia and Bangladesh. It also requires investing in health initiatives that benefit the entire population of a country.
"What we see in these countries is clearly achievable in many others as well," Norheim believes.
Setbacks in some countries
While many countries have made significant health progress, the international research team also identified nations where health has deteriorated over the past decades.
"This decline is largely linked to factors such as war, political instability, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic," says Norheim.
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Three large countries that have experienced stagnation or setbacks in health are the USA, Mexico, and Nigeria.
Lifestyle diseases, violence, and insufficient investments in public health that benefit the entire population are often the cause.
No longer child mortality
A significant portion of the world's countries have made great progress in reducing child mortality.
Now, adult deaths related to lifestyle and public health policies are becoming the greatest concern.
"Another striking finding from our study is that health improvements have generally progressed faster among women than men," he says.
In every country studied, researchers observed that more men than women die before reaching the age of 70.
The USA is the exception
"In the USA, we don't see a decline in deaths before the age of 70. This negative trend in the USA is something we would like to understand better," says Norheim.
The issue is significant enough that a dedicated international Lancet commission will now be formed to study health trends in the USA.
In particular, the white population with lower education levels and incomes has experienced declining health in the USA.
Ethiopia as a role model
Ethiopia and Bangladesh have significantly reduced premature deaths in their population, largely due to efforts aimed at improving maternal and child health.
This includes maternal health during pregnancy, childbirth care, breastfeeding, and early childhood development.
Health workers in Ethiopia have also made substantial efforts to reduce diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, and malaria.
Much of this work has been carried out in rural areas.
Researchers also link Ethiopia's progress to the fact that the proportion of people living in poverty has been halved since 1990.
At the same time, literacy rates have doubled, and the number of births per woman has been rapidly declining.
Targeted measures work best
Researchers have found that as more people worldwide reach the age of 70, the most effective approach has been targeted measures against a small number of diseases and risk factors.
Campaigns and vaccination efforts against HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria have shown particularly significant results.
In more developed countries like the USA, researchers have noted that reducing smoking rates and improving treatment for high blood pressure and cholesterol have had a major impact on life expectancy.
Nigeria and Mexico
Nigeria and Mexico are two populous countries where health progress has been less positive.
In Nigeria, increasing economic inequality has contributed to rising mortality rates, with more deaths caused by diabetes and cancer.
Mexico experienced steady health improvements until around 2000, but progress has since stagnated over the past two decades.
Many people in Mexico now die from heart disease, diabetes, and violence before reaching the age of 70.
These conditions have replaced the infectious diseases that previously caused many deaths.
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Translated by Alette Bjordal Gjellesvik
Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no
References:
Langsikt: Norge kan, Norge bør: Ta lederskap for å halvere tidlig død innen 2050 (Norway can, Norway should: Take leadership to halve premature death by 2050), Stoltenberg Committee.
Norheim et al. Halving premature death and improving quality of life at all ages: cross-country analyses of past trends and future directions, The Lancet, vol. 404, 2024. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02417-6
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