What the world can expect in Donald Trump's second presidential term
President Donald Trump's second term could mean the end of US support for Ukraine, an intensified trade war with China, and more protectionism, experts believe.
On November 6, the controversial businessman and TV personality Donald Trump declared victory in the US presidential election.
According to a survey in The New York Times, the economy, immigration, and abortion were important issues for voters.
However, with Trump in the White House as the leader of the world's largest economy, Americans' choice impacts far beyond US borders.
“Our experience from Trump's first term was that there was a lot of chaos. In many situations, the storm raged on the surface, but below water, it was mostly business as usual,” says Paal Sigurd Hilde, a professor at the Norwegian Defence University College's Department of Defence Studies.
He notes that Ukraine might now have to settle for less support from the US or accept an alternative peace solution with the Russians.
Researcher believes Ukraine will face pressure
Trump has said he would easily find a solution in Ukraine – and promised that if he were to be elected, it would happen before his inauguration as president in January next year.
The war broke out one year after Trump left the White House and has now lasted for two and a half years. The suffering shows no signs of ending, despite Western countries supplying the Ukrainians with support and weapons.
Trump has also criticised Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, stating that he "sells his case well" given all the support he receives from the US every time he visits Washington.
“Trump's most important leverage against Ukraine will be that he can stop the extensive support the US now provides – both in terms of weapons and ammunition, but also intelligence and other forms of aid,” says Hilde, warning:
“In the worst case, this could mean Ukraine is pressured into an unfavourable peace agreement or loses American support, thereby being at greater risk of losing the war.”
Dramatic change in the world order
It is also expected that the US will continue its tough trade policy against China – and even intensify it.
The trade dispute between the US and China started with Trump, but Democrat Joe Biden has continued punitive tariffs and introduced numerous new restrictions targeting Chinese tech companies.
"I think it will only tighten further, across all areas, such as tariffs, sanctions, protectionism, and subsidies," says Øystein Tunsjø, professor and head of the Asia programme at the Norwegian Defence University College's Department of Defence Studies.
He notes that the two countries are fiercely competing in all areas, including the transition to green technologies. For the US, there is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and China has its Made in China 2025 strategy.
“I think there will be further subsidies for strategically important industries. This means that the world order of the past 30 years, which relied on market forces and liberalisation, will change dramatically into a 're-globalised' world," he says.
This could involve moving production back home or to close allies and partner countries to reduce dependence on China.
Promised tax cuts and housing assistance
More than one in four American voters answered that the economy was the most important issue for them in this year's election. Trump has made several promises related to tax cuts.
The newly elected president has said he will extend and expand all the tax cuts he first introduced in 2017, and has also advocated for tax exemptions on tips in the restaurant and service industry.
He has proposed removing taxes on social benefits and overtime pay and has promised a new tax deduction for interest on car loans – but only for cars manufactured in the US.
Trump also plans to lower the corporate tax rate from 21 per cent to 15 per cent – again, only for companies with production in the US.
He has said he will repeal any tax increases implemented during Joe Biden's presidency and remove tax breaks introduced by Democrats to promote renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Additionally, Trump wants to take steps to lower housing costs by allowing construction on land managed by the federal government in the US, which could include national parks or military areas.
Hardline stance on immigrants
Immigration and abortion shared second place among the issues Americans were most concerned about this year, according to The New York Times survey.
Much of Trump's election campaign was built on rhetoric directed against immigrants to the US. He has promised to carry out the largest domestic deportation in US history, potentially involving the use of the National Guard and internment camps.
He has also demanded the death penalty for immigrants who kill American citizens. Trump plans to revive and expand the travel ban originally targeting seven Muslim-majority countries.
After Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7 last year, Trump called for an 'ideological screening' of immigrants to exclude those who are 'dangerous, insane, and hateful.' He has also suggested ending birthright citizenship for children born in the US to individuals without legal residency.
Vague stance on abortion
The Republican has been more vague about abortion rights. Last spring, he said abortion legislation should be left to individual states. He has declined to sign a national abortion ban and has opposed removing access to abortion pills.
Trump has also stated that it should be up to the states to decide whether to prosecute women who have abortions. However, he has not dismissed this policy.
It was the three justices Trump appointed during his first term as president who helped secure the Supreme Court majority in 2022 to overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling. This decision had guaranteed women federal rights to abortion in the USA since 1973.
On the other hand, Trump has said that he will make IVF free for women. He has even claimed that he is the 'father' of the procedure, which was first used in 1978.
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Translated by Nancy Bazilchuk
Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no
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