Defence expert: Trump's pressure on NATO allies has been effective
After Donald Trump, as president, threatened to pull the USA out of NATO, the majority of the alliance's countries complied with his demands. The pressure was effective, according to a defence expert.
John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, released the book The Room Where It Happened this year. In it, he warns that if Donald Trump wims the election, he will once again want to withdraw the USA from NATO.
When Trump was last president, he made this threat, which no other American president had previously suggested.
As recently as February this year, Trump said he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" with members of the alliance that do not meet the goal of spending two per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence.
23 countries have met the goal
Ten years ago, only the USA, the UK, and Greece spent at least two per cent of their GDP on military expenses.
Since then, several NATO countries near Russia – Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Bulgaria – have increased their defence budgets.
At NATO's summit in Washington this summer, there were 23 countries – including Norway – on track to spend at least 2 per cent of GDP on defence spending in 2024.
Only nine countries are now lagging behind.
Trump's pressure has been effective
Several countries have thus strengthened their defences, first after Russia's occupation of Crimea and even more following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"But we should not underestimate how effective Trump's pressure has been," says Paal Sigurd Hilde, a professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS).
Norway, he says, is one of the countries that responded to the pressure.
"The largest increase in Norway's defence budget didn't come right after the Russian invasion in 2022. It was only in spring 2023 that a decision was made for Norway to reach 2 per cent of GDP by 2026," he says.
Did not want to be in the hot seat
The main motivation was not a changed threat assessment of Russia, according to the defence researcher.
"I think it was about Norwegian authorities not wanting to go to the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023 without a plan to reach the two per cent goal. Norway was one of very few countries that without such a plan," says Hilde.
This spring, just before the NATO summit in Washington, a decision was made to reach this goal already in 2024.
In 2023, it appeared that Norway was among a shrinking group of countries not on track to meet the two per cent target in 2024, Hilde explains.
"In other words, Norway didn't want to end up in the hot seat, especially with the possibility that Trump might become president in the USA again. That was likely a very significant factor in the decision to increase the defence budget this year," he says.
Still not likely to be enough for Trump
Despite the increase in defence budgets among most countries, Hilde does not believe Donald Trump will be satisfied now that he has been elected president again.
"This issue will resurface because it's also a domestic political matter in the USA. Donald Trump likes to boast about being tough on allies," he says.
At the same time, the professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies points out that Trump may have a harder time making this argument. In the coming years, several European NATO countries are expected to spend a larger percentage of their GDP on the military than the USA does.
"The US percentage has declined in recent years. According to some forecasts, they could drop to 2.7 per cent next year, meaning several European countries will be spending more," he says.
NATO countries increased their military spending by less than 4 per cent in 2022, by over 9 per cent in 2023, and could raise it by as much as 18 per cent in 2024, according to a press release from NATO.
Most of this spending will come from Poland and Estonia. For now, the USA holds the third spot and spends more on the military than all other NATO member countries combined.
Could undermine trust within NATO
Paal Sigurd Hilde does not believe there is a real risk that Trump will withdraw the USA from NATO now that he has been re-elected.
"Europe is important for the USA. Regardless, Trump would face strong resistance from both Congress and the American military if he attempts this," he says.
Hilde is more concerned that Trump could damage the rust on which the alliance is built – that we will support each other if war comes, a principle often described as the core of the NATO treaty.
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"As commander-in-chief of the US military, he could decide that the USA would not help another country if it were attacked. That would fundamentally undermine NATO in the short term. But the organisation would continue to exist and wait until Trump is gone, and then trust can be rebuilt," he says.
Stronger in Northern Europe
Paal Sigurd Hilde believes it will take a long time before Russia will be able to attack a NATO country, even with support from China.
"I think that after the war in Ukraine, it will take longer than the three to five years suggested in the Intelligence Service's report Focus 2024 before Russia can challenge NATO militarily," he says.
By that time, we will have built a very strong Northern European NATO, the professor believes.
"This will make us less dependent on the USA, although, of course, no one hopes the USA won't want to support us," he says.
The defence researcher, therefore, will not lose sleep now that Donald Trump has been re-elected as president of the USA.
Underestimating the importance of the USA
Øystein Tunsjø, also a professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS), is not as convinced as Hilde that a strengthened European defence could replace US military power.
Europe faces many obstacles in sustaining its military capacity without the USA, he believes.
"We neither have enough funding nor sufficient political will to make the necessary investments in defence," he says.
Tunsjø also agrees with Hilde that the USA is unlikely to withdraw from NATO.
"Congress wouldn't agree to it. And Trump wouldn't benefit from it either," says Tunsjø.
The USA prepares for war with China
He also believes Trump may be satisfied that many European countries have now increased their defence budgets.
At the same time, he emphasises the importance of Europe taking more responsibility for its own defence.
Tunsjø suggests that, with Trump having won the election, the US president would be preparing for a potential long-term conflict with China. Consequently, the USA would likely be less involved in Europe's defence, meaning that Europe would need to assume even greater responsiblity for its own security.
"Regardless of who was elected president, both candidates would prepare for a potential long-term conflict with China. Consequently, the USA would likely be less involved in Europe's defence, meaning that Europe would need to assume even greater responsiblity for its own security," he says.
Believes Russia will strengthen faster than many expect
As China becomes the primary challenger to the USA and draws American focus away from Europe, Russia may have the opportunity to strengthen itself militarily, Tunsjø believes.
"It may take time for Russia to rebuild after the war in Ukraine. But it could happen much faster than many expect. They have suffered a setback in Ukraine. But as they rebuild their military, they have learned some lessons," he says.
“Russia now also knows more about what it needs to wage modern warfare. Unlike us in Europe, who are strengthening our defences somewhat aimlessly,” he adds.
Weapons from China
Currently, China is cautious about providing military support to Russia. If a peace agreement with Ukraine is reached, Tunsjø believes China could start selling weapons to Russia.
"If Beijing chooses to support Russia militarily, Russia will receive a significant amount of weaponry from China. China has made substantial advancements in military technology. The extremely large technological gap that existed between China and the USA has already narrowed considerably,” he says.
This concerns the Americans, Tunsjø adds.
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Translated by Alette Bjordal Gjellesvik
Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no
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